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Online gamblers believe President Donald Trump’s electoral fortunes are on the rise.
The president’s odds of winning reelection, according to London betting exchange Betfair, stood at +175 as of Wednesday, compared to -180 for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. In other words, bettors must wager $100 in order to win $175 in the event Trump wins the Nov. 3 election. They have to bet $180 to win $100 in the event Biden wins.
Trump’s odds have fluctuated in recent days, hitting a high of +150 on Oct. 19. That was a marked improvement from earlier in the month, when he stood at +225.
The odds fluctuate as more money enters the arena in favor of either candidate. The improvement for Trump coincides with recent polling that suggests the race is tightening, though Biden still enjoys a slight lead. A RealClearPolitics polling average showed Biden with a lead in Pennsylvania of 3.7 percent more than Trump as of Wednesday, compared to a 6.2 percent lead for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton on the same day in 2016. In Florida, averages show Biden leading Trump by 1.6 percentage points. Polls showed Clinton leading Trump by 4.3 percent in the state on the same day in 2016.
Betfair Spokesman Sam Rosbottom attributed the fluctuation in betting to the changing polls.
“The Donald Trump effect is really starting to take hold now with his odds to win reelection (improving) from last week and therefore the chance of him causing an upset, as he did in 2016, an even bigger possibility,” Rosbottom said in a statement to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The president becoming favorite in Florida, arguably the most important state for his campaign, could be a big turning point.”
UPDATE: A previous version of this article described the polling average in Pennsylvania as the national average. This has been corrected.
